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Texas A&M forecast data: http://www.met.tamu.edu/t2k/
Forecast discussion, Fri., Aug. 18, morning
Winds are lighter at low levels (profiler winds from the SW, surface winds from the W) and stronger aloft (15 kt K above 1200 m). Some winds are from the NW this AM, including Texas City and some ship channel sites. Therefore, most morning emissions will remain in situ or drift over Galveston Bay. In late morning, winds will become light from the southeast inland, with a bay and land breeze developing by noon or 1 pm. The expected recirculation (plus 40 ppb background) will cause ozone exceedences along and north of the Houston Ship Channel in early afternoon, farther north during late afternoon. Exceedances over 165 ppb seem likely. The urban plume will advect north, then n ortheast toward Tyler/Longview.
Max T near 100 F (39 C) Clouds few or none
Quick Look at Tomorrow
Same general pattern, possibly stronger southeasterlies. Land breeze still seems possible, but overall situation doesn't look quite as favorable as today. Similar high ozone areas and plume trajectories.
High pressure will remain over the area, despite the approach of a cold front into Arkansas on Saturday. The airmass will remain dirty, as large-scale trajectories will originate from the southeast United States and cross the northern Gulf according to the Grell model run. The situation should persist for several days, with widespread precipitation unlikely until at least Tuesday.
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