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Texas 2000 Weather Forecasting Page

Forecast discussion, Sun., Sept. 3, morning

Today's Update

Background ozone levels this morning are lower than yesterday (13 ppb at Galveston today versus 38 ppb yesterday). Winds overnight remained south-westerly. With the deep layer of stronger westerly winds this morning, I expect winds to remain westerly throughout the day. Therefore, the ozone distribution will be similar to that of yesterday. Areas east of Houston will see the highest ozone amounts. However, I expect lower peak values than yesterday. The MM5 has a sea breeze developing in the late afternoon with winds still having a SW component behind the front. There is a slight chance of late afternoon showers as we have had cumulus clouds develop north of the city, moving south over the past few days, and the synopitic weather pattern has not changed.

Max temperature 100+.

Quick Look at Tomorrow

Winds aloft have been from the northeast and look to gain strength. By tomorrow afternoon these stronger northeasterly winds should mix down into the boundary layer so that the surface winds become more northeasterly. If this happens, there could be high ozone exceedences as dirty continental area moves south over Houston. Stations with exceedences would be located south and west of the ship channel. There is little chance for precipitation tomorrow as dew points decrease and moisture at mid-levels decreases.

Multi-Day Outlook

Models over the next several days continue with the stronger northeasterly winds aloft with the synoptic pattern not changing significantly.

Forecaster Stephanie Naumann

 

Today's Update

The outlook is much like yesterday. Morning winds are from the west in the lowest 1 km at 10-15 kt. Low cloud cover will be spotty through the morning and early afternoon. Because of the strength of the winds, the Galveston Bay breeze will be weak or nonexistent. Winds will remain westerly until early afternoon, when the Gulf breeze will cause winds to become southerly. Highest ozone will be east of the Houston ship channel during the afternoon, with the urban plume then being carried to the northeast during the evening. An observed ozone exceedence is unlikely; background ozone levels are very low. Hourly averages of 100 ppb are likely.

Multi-Day Outlook High pressure will remain over the area, despite the approach of a cold front into Arkansas on Saturday. The airmass should become dirtier, as large-scale trajectories will originate from the southeast United States and cross the northern Gulf according to the Grell model run. The situation should persist for several days, with precipitation unlikely.


 

 

 

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