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Texas 2000 Weather Forecasting Page

Forecast discussion, Wed., Sept. 6, morning

 

Today's Update

Background ozone levels this morning are higher than they typically have been in areas away from the ship channel (in the 40s at Conroe). Smoke from the wild fires in eastern Texas and Louisiana is reducing visibility this morning. Temperatures are much cooler than they have been in over a week (70s!!). Winds are east-northeasterly this morning and rather strong. The winds will continue out of the east today and be brisk at times. Yesterday's convection should not repeat today, due to more stable stable air moving in the area, and also due to a very deep layer of dry air aloft. The dry air appears from the water vapor loop to be associated with a tropopause fold. Therefore, skies should be cloud-free most of the day, but remain rather opaque due to smoke from the wild fires. A decent moist layer aloft and steep lapse rate still remains, so a buildup of late afternoon cumulus can not be ruled out. Chances of precip is less than 10%. Due to the surface winds, the highest levels of pollutants will be found in the western edge of the surface network.

Max temperature Upper 90s

Quick Look at Tomorrow

Winds shall continue out of the east, and continue to advect the smoke from the fires this way. An area of low pressure off the Louisiana coast at this time will drift westward as well. The day will most likely start off the same as today, but the chances of precipitation will be greater in the late afternoon as the low pressure gets nearer.

Multi-Day Outlook

Strong high pressure moving south along the eastern third of the US will cause the synoptic winds to continue to veer toward the southeast. In addition, the low over the Gulf will slowly drift westward. The models are all in agreement showing a wet period along the coast the next few days.

Forecaster Karl Schulze

 

 

 

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