Forecast discussion, Sun., Sept. 10, morning
Profilers this morning show winds from the south at 10-15 knots. Winds have veered during the night, so they will become light during the morning and will pick up again from the southeast during the afternoon. There are isolated tropical showers in the area, and a disorganized band extends south over the Gulf. We will be in moist unstable air all day. Cumuli at the top of the boundary layer will become widespread by late morning and many of them will develop into thundershowers. The sea breeze will provide a local forcing mechanism for enhanced thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms will be more widely scattered farther northwest, with little chance of thunderstorms as far north as Dallas. However the boundary layer cumulus will cover (scattered to broken) all of east Texas by midday or so.
Max temperature Near 90
Quick Look at Tomorrow
Slightly diminished chance of precipitation (but still widespread near coast) and weaker large-scale winds could set us up for ozone exceedances. Boundary layer clouds will remain a problem. Eta 850 mb wind by tomorrow evening is only 5 knots.
Today is the first day of a regime which will trend toward light large scale winds and a moist tropical airmass. The regime will be characterized by diurnal pbl clouds and flow reversals with high ozone in between the scattered thunderstorms.
Forecaster John Nielsen-Gammon
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